Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat 8211 2-25-15

  • 11:42Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday. Tanner Vallejo Jersey Lets talk baseball for an hour or so.11:43Dave Cameron: The queue is now open, and well start chatting at noon.12:01Comment From mtswTell us what you believe about the ESPN rankings of methods analytical each pro sports organization is. The MLB rankings appeared to be 29 teams ranked by how often they deomonstrate information on their front office to reporters and the Phillies in the bottom12:02Dave Cameron: Ben Baumer, who did the MLB write-ups, isnt a reporter. He worked for the Mets, and interacted with lots of the people he listed. I thought it was pretty well done, and it was mostly accurate in reflecting each organizations efforts to embrace analytics.12:03Comment From PaKCmanSo Ken Tremendous needs to do a baseball analytics-themed sitcom next, right?12:03Dave Cameron: I realize Ill probably get burned at the stake with this, however i watched one episode of Parks and Rec years back, didnt laugh once, and also have never watched since.

    12:03Dave Cameron: Also, Ive never witne sed The Wire or Breaking Bad.12:04Comment From JaackIs there any really good team this year that you simply think includes a decent chance of imploding?12:05Dave Cameron: I could see the wheels just falling off for the Tigers. If Martinez and Cabreras injuries linger, Verlander doesnt fix himself, and J.D. Martinez goes back to being J.D. Martinez, this team could suck.12:05Dave Cameron: I dont think those things may happen, but each one is reasonable on its own.12:05Comment From adamover the next Three years: harper or heyward?12:05Dave Cameron: Harper. Over almost anyone else in baseball, to tell the truth. Im still mainly on board the Bryce Harper bandwagon.12:05Comment From JoeWhat do you consider the Os use Everth Cabrera?12:05Dave Cameron: Make their second baseman. Jonathan Schoop isn't good.12:06Comment From Waltethier goes where since he's requested a trade?12:06Dave Cameron: No one wants him.12:06Comment From mtswWhat, if anything, valuable can be gleaned by reporting on my small favorite teams spring training?12:06Dave Cameron: Injury stuff can be handy. On top of that, almost nothing.12:07Comment From adamboston gos after yadier with Moncada signed?12:07Dave Cameron: Rumors circling the Dodgers are likely to blow the doors off the next July 2nd cla s, so its certainly po sible, and maybe even likely.12:07Comment From nealwhy is peoples first reaction to the moncada signing bonus we require a draft so international players get paid le s to sign rather than american kids should get paid more to sign?12:08Dave Cameron: Because there is nobody advocating for non-union amateurs. The league doesnt wish to outlay cash many the MLBPA doesnt wish to provide them with more of their slice of the pie.12:08Comment From gregDumb question, but what are you currently talking about when you say, count the blinks prior to going on MLBN? You blink an exce sive amount of? insufficient?12:09Dave Cameron: I am apparently very good at staring right into a camera. Some claim its because Im a robot.12:09Comment From Pale HoseAre you annoyed or amused when you are getting confused for that other Dave Cameron on twitter?12:09Dave Cameron: Its usually funny.12:09Comment From Phillies113The Phillies players, at least publicly, are down-playing the rebuilding talk that surrounds the team. Is there a merit not to publicly acknowledging the team is within trouble and requires to rebuild, or could they be simply delusional?12:10Dave Cameron: Whats the upside in saying were going to suck so we know it even when its true? Why not placed on a happy face and discu s the fact that anything can actually happen?12:10Comment From Tony the TigerThoughts on John Farrell stating that Victorino is Bostons starting RF?12:10Dave Cameron: Comments produced in mid-February have no impact on who exactly plays from April.12:11Dave Cameron: Having said that, I'll still maintain that theres plenty of playing here we are at Castillo, Betts, and Victorino to talk about two jobs with everyone getting enough at-bats.12:11Comment From RogDave, many people have suggested that signing Moncada allows the Sox to be much more comfortable moving someone like Betts or Swihart inside a Hamels deal. This is still a bad idea, right?12:11Dave Cameron: Obviously. The 2 things were not related.12:11Comment From GuestWainwright injury. must i worry?12:12Dave Cameron: Given that he wasnt exactly healthy this past year, yeah, I believe this isnt a great sign.12:12Comment From mtswWould an NFL combine-style pre-draft event help gin up curiosity about the MLB draft? People appear to love the combine.12:12Dave Cameron: Thats because NFL prospects will be starters on their own teams next year. Not true of MLB guys, so interest will always be muted.12:13Comment From BenAm I the only one who doesnt think Amaro isnt crazy re: Hamels? If his best shot to save his job would be to hit a house run inside a trade (i.e. multiple top prospects + full salary), why don't you wait until the price rises midseason? If he trades him now and Hamels gets injured or whatever, he probably loses his job anyway12:13Dave Cameron: From the self-interest perspective, you may be right, but Id fire my GM the moment I figured he was acting in his own interests and never within the best interests of the organization.12:14Comment From csmountaineerIf the Reds are out of contention by July (as expected), cure are you able to see being moved other than Cueto?12:14Dave Cameron: Cueto and Chapman will be the big prizes.12:14Comment From Johnnow the sox have moncada, will it make bogaerts more available?12:14Dave Cameron: Nope.12:14Comment From MattGiven the NHLs new emphasis on public advanced stats, think baseball is ever going to endorse them or will it realize their safety inside a strong public baseball community? Should we be concerned about how little weve heard on Statcast as well?12:15Dave Cameron: Im gue sing well start hearing much more about Statcast within the next couple weeks. They announced it at Sloan last year, for example, and Sloan happens to be a few days ago, at which Rob Manfred includes a 1-on-1 with Brian Kenny. Also, Im on the baseball panel on Saturday morning, so perhaps Ill just hijack everything until someone at BAM tells us what we want to know.12:16Comment From DAL MVP: Mike Trout, Miggy, Bautista, and Jose Abreu or even the field?12:16Dave Cameron: Always go ahead and take field.12:16Comment From ChrisAnyone at Fangraphs likely to be at the Sloan Conference now?12:16Dave Cameron: Appelman and myself are coming in. Bryan Cole of TechGraphs is going to be around too.12:17Comment From SamPhil Coke in news reports lately. Between him and Beimel, who is the greater value in their position?12:17Dave Cameron: Ill take Questions That Only Arrive in February for $200, Alex.12:17Comment From GuestGiven the conflicts between him and ownership, are you surprised Brian Cashman hasnt attempted to find the greener pastures of becoming a team president somewhere?12:18Dave Cameron: I believe he likes the fact that he is able to speak his mind in NYY and never get fired.12:18Dave Cameron: Also, they pay well.12:18Comment From RMRTrue or False? Johnny Cuetos next contract will exceed the value of Max Scherzers deal with Washington.12:18Dave Cameron: False. Injury history will hold him to Lester range.12:19Comment From cubanoBased on league statistics, the Cuban National Series appears to be a hitters league. Yoan Moncada could be the prize, but has the nearly 20-year-old be overhyped? According to CNS statistics at Baseball Reference, Moncada this year and 2013 ranked close to the bottom from the Best players hitters, granted against far older competition. Obviously, the scouts love Moncada.12:19Dave Cameron: Yeah, I'd put almost zero stock on a teenagers performance against guys Ten years over the age of him.12:20Dave Cameron: Zero negative stock, anyway. If a guy destroys players 10 years his senior, thats obviously an excellent sign.12:20Comment From AlexWhen compiling a team, would it hypothetically be much better to po se s some great players and a few average players, or great players, when the overall WAR was equivalent? Or would there be no difference?12:20Dave Cameron: Different people have different a sumes this. I dont think it matters.12:20Dave Cameron: Theres more risk with the stars-and-scrubs approach, but also more chance to upgrade for higher upside. Depends upon your risk preferences.12:21Comment From AlexDave. Get off this chat and go watch Breaking Bad NOW. Youll thank me later.12:21Dave Cameron: My interests often dont align with popular culture. I dont find Will Ferrell funny at all, for instance, even though everyone informs me I ought to.12:22Comment From GSonIn a forum for le ser Indians fans.. the merits of the player visiting camp are now being debated, specifically, SS Jose Ramirez, the Indians projected starting SS.. He comes to camp 23 pounds heavier.. The debate is.. hes going to be not fast enough and will lose ranger.. versus.. hes old, stronger and can up his power totals.. Are you going to do Ikemefuna Enemkpali Jersey analytics inform us we should lean towards for this 22 year old?12:22Dave Cameron: That you shouldnt put any stock on any of these stories.12:22Comment From SeymourRegarding the Os 2B and you saying Schoop is bad. truth is that Everth is bad though. You appeared to be ignoring this inside your answer.12:22Dave Cameron: Cabrera is le s bad.12:22Comment From DaveDo you believe Smyly was upset that American born players get too little in bonuses, or that international signees get an exce sive amount of?12:22Dave Cameron: The latter.12:23Comment From mtswDoes the opportunity of a global draft changing the machine in the future make dollars spend on these prospects even smarter since there wont be that opportunity to invest later on?12:24Dave Cameron: Potentially, though Id imagine MLB will discover a method to still penalize teams within an international draft for overages incurred before the draft was instituted. Theyre not Andre Reed Jersey going to just wave away the Red Sox penalties if theres a draft in two years.12:24Comment From WarriorDave, who wins more games Padres or Blue Jays?12:24Dave Cameron: Toronto12:25Comment From AlexIf a definite #1 international prospect like Moncada goes for $60Mil, and has boom/or bust potential, can there be any logic in making use of the same sum of money to pick up #s2 thorugh 20 since you know that no matter what a number of them will pan out?12:25Dave Cameron: I believe thats what were seeing. Yoan Lopez wasnt considered the best prospect within this cla s or anything, and he got $8 million.12:25Dave Cameron: Same goes with Ricardo Baldoquin.12:25Comment From MookHavent heard you reference Mookie Betts over a couple of days now. Everything okay?12:26Dave Cameron: Just waiting on the paperwork to undergo in order to legally adopt him.12:26Comment From SeymourWainwright injury accelerate a Hamels deal? It had been a pretty obvious match12:27Dave Cameron: Maybe, or Cardinals may go after Cliff Lee instead, leaving them the long-term flexibility to go after among the Price/Zimmermann/Cueto/Samardzija group this winter season.12:27Comment From CatoblepasJeff revealed yesterday he writes all his posts in a single sitting, that is terrifying. How long does the average post get you?12:27Dave Cameron: The writing part is usually pretty easy, only one hour. Its the concept/research that can take a while.12:28Comment From BenWhich Red Sox pitching prospect do you consider could have the largest impact this year: Owens, Barnes, Rodriguez, Johnson or none of the above?12:28Dave Cameron: Rodriguez.12:28Comment From CurtisDo you anticipate any new Stats of significance in the future or has got the bulk of the job recently been completed in identifying new, relevant statistics? Seems like we have a large amount of useful information.will efforts to further define defensive excellence be a focus?12:29Dave Cameron: Tracking data is likely to transform the way you discu s baseball.12:29Dave Cameron: Provide a few years for that wrinkles to obtain ironed out and also the le sons from the data to actually take hold, and such things as BABIP will become relics of the past.12:31Dave Cameron: Ideologically, the Red Sox and Dodgers are probably the two teams who have built rosters under the concepts that I believe in. Or, if you prefer a not-rich-team version, the As.12:31Comment From Tommy LasordidCorey Seager or Mookie Betts for the next 5 years?12:31Dave Cameron: Betts.12:31Dave Cameron: A part of that's that hes getting an extra year in the big leagues in that timeframe though.12:32Comment From ShawnAny updates on the Saber Seminar in Boston this year? Dates?12:32Dave Cameron: Not announced yet, but mid-August appears like a good bet based on past years.12:32Comment From Hugo ZSome have characterized exactly what the Braves do as a retool, and a few call it a rebuild. What is the magic number if this cro ses over in one to another?12:32Dave Cameron: The As and Rays have retooled. The Braves are rebuilding.12:33Dave Cameron: Retooling suggests that you can still reasonably be prepared to contend. The Braves cant.12:33Comment From Johncant ethier net something? im a suming the dodgers would be willing to eat most of his contract? nobody would take that?12:33Dave Cameron: When the Dodgers need to pay him to play for another person, why don't you pay him to experience on their behalf?12:34Comment From TrevorThere would be a lot of talk on Twitter a few days ago about the lack of women analysts in pro sports. 1.) Do you think it's a problem and 2.) What is your opinion can be done to encourage more women or hire more women12:35Dave Cameron: I'm sure the male-domination of the sports media is problematic, but I dont know that I have any real answers. I had been hoping more women would apply when we posted our responsibility opening, and I mi s having Wendy Thurms voice here within the company.12:35Comment From Johnthe question for you is whether you find archer funny12:35Dave Cameron: Never seen it.12:35Comment From ShawnAs someone whos been broken through the cold, snowy Colonial winter, where are the most useful places to live in NC?12:36Dave Cameron: If youre a hippie, Asheville. If youre a medical/education/tech employee, Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill. If youre rich and retired, the Outer Banks.12:37Comment From soaktherichIn your chat a week ago you envisioned another career giving financial/retirement advice to individuals with 5-figure incomes. You should stop this idle chatter and start doing that immediately. You may earn a real effect on many peoples lives indeed, probably >90% of your current readers rather than just entertaining their hobby. You said yourself there are scads of young seamheads out there that may bring your place (in a different context but directly relevant) but few of them would be able to make the contribution you could make like a financial advisor towards the ma ses. So, FinanGraphs?12:38Dave Cameron: The catch, maybe: baseball is continually providing new information to be discu sed, analyzed, and commented on. I dont know how often I could say buy low-cost index funds and dont look at them for 10 years before Id end up with boring.12:39Dave Cameron: That said, I still toy with the idea of trying something, and when theres enough interest, it might happen.12:39Comment From PrichPeople always inquire if you;d like to be a GM, but, if you came into 10 billion dollars, can you have interest in becoming the majority owner of an MLB team?12:40Dave Cameron: Sure. At that point, Id probably attempt to buy my way into the commi sioners rule. Id finally get to abolish the draft.12:40Comment From JimMookie Betts has been the big name, but what do you see for Xander Bogaerts in the immediate future? It wasnt everything sometime ago people projected superstardom and today the outlook seems very bleak.12:40Dave Cameron: I dont think the outlook is bleak at all. He still projects as an excellent shortstop in the short-term and it has star potential in the long-term.12:41Comment From baseballhi Dave Ive been attempting to do Pitch F/X research to have an article however i cant appear to find sortable pitch f/x data, ala what you would find on brooks baseball.12:42Dave Cameron: Construct your own. One of the best ways to teach yourself database skills is to build a SQL DB with PITCHF/ Joe Powell Jersey x data. There's a bunch of tutorials online on how to do that.12:42Dave Cameron: (Or, you can just use Baseball Savant)12:42Comment From HenryCole Hamel will be a ____ on 9/1/2015.12:42Dave Cameron: Ill say Dodger, because why not.12:43Comment From GuestAre Brad Miller and Chris Taylor available if Martel makes the team and what's their respective trade values?12:43Dave Cameron: Ketel Marte isnt making the majors this year. One of the two becomes trade bait when the other really takes the task and runs away by using it.12:44Dave Cameron: Realistically, though, Willie Bloomquist isn't a reasonable backup SS on a team trying to win, so they ought to keep both.12:44Comment From GuestTracking data can make defensive stats like range and positioning much more trustworthy.12:44Dave Cameron: That's the hope, yes.12:45Comment From mtswPlease expand around the BABIP will become a relic of the past thing. Do you just mean meaning more specific data will render in play a not-useful distinction?12:46Dave Cameron: Once we can estimate the odds of the ball being caught or falling in according to speed off bat, launch angle, hang time, and distance traveled, the buckets can get far more precise, and we wont have to lump a high fly ball with a line lower the line.12:46Comment From DaveGrantland had a piece up about a new way to evaluate defense within the NBA based on the tracking data. The data for 1 year was 80 GB. If the MLB tracking data is that enormous, will the public even be capable of making anything of it if were granted acce s?12:47Dave Cameron: Well never obtain the raw data. Anticipation is the fact that well get useful enough summary data to change into reliable metrics.12:47Dave Cameron: But I think its actually good that MLBAM is centralizing the gathering of the raw tracking data. When teams themselves do it, theres zero chance it reaches us. With the league doing it, it features a shot at filtering down.12:48Comment From Mooking for LoveIs Farrell seriously not going to start Mookie?12:48Dave Cameron: The idea of a starter and bench guy is outdated. When you have multiple talented players, you play all of them. Nothing wrong with having three guys for 2 spots.12:49Comment From DaveHow do payments to other clubs get treated by the luxury tax?12:49Dave Cameron: Still count from the team making the instalments.12:49Comment From SethWhat is Welington Castillos trade value?12:49Dave Cameron: Almost zero.12:50Comment From CurtisWhat do you anticipate Manfreds biggest challenges to be in the next few years? Do you think hell create a stamp of his own on an i sue or will he play towards the establishment and edge (not counting pace of play like a stamp in my book anyway)?12:50Dave Cameron: I think the next CBA is going to be a large fight.12:50Dave Cameron: Players arent likely to sit around allow the league still roll in money without demanding a bigger chunk.12:50Comment From GuestWhat have you ever seen? What exactly are your favorite Television shows and films?12:51Dave Cameron: I dont watch a lot of TV. Used to do really like The Office, though I stopped watching about halfway through season five or six. I love House. Ive started watching The Americans, and enjoy it.12:51Dave Cameron: I dont have cable, so Im generally not watching things simultaneously as everybody else.12:52Comment From MontgomeryWhy is Moncada worth more than what your prospect valuations say he should be worth? That is around $40-45M12:52Dave Cameron: Those arent my prospect valuations. Ive said from the beginning that although I believe Creagh/DiMiceli did really good work, I think their numbers are extremely low.12:52Comment From mtswIs there a downside to residing in North park? It seems suspciously nice there like there has to be some catch that individuals dont learn about until they move.12:52Dave Cameron: Cost of living.12:53Comment From JoshAs a Dodger fan, must i concern yourself with their depth? Signing Beachy was really good, but all of us have soured on Lee so we know McCarthy/Anderson i sues. Doesnt appear to be there's a ton else. The thought of having to get Kevin Correia again terrifies me12:53Dave Cameron: Your front office is smarter now than it was once they traded for Correia.12:54Comment From DanielLets say the Yankees get placed on the market tomorrow.. Just how much will the team cost?12:54Dave Cameron: $4-$5 billion.12:54Comment From GuestDo you've any opinion about domestic vs. foreign stocks?12:55Dave Cameron: Have several both. I think my current portfolio (again, all low-cost index funds) is something like 85% domestic (mixture of stocks/bond funds) and 15% international. May be 90/10. Dont remember precise allocation from the surface of my head.12:55Comment From BillWendy Thurm isnt within the company anymore? What became of her, as with, what team snapped her up?12:55Dave Cameron: Shes freelancing for various places. Follow her @hangingsliders on Twitter to determine when she posts her blogs.12:56Comment From ljcThe $31.5M (times 2) for Moncada was just the signing bonus and tax, correct? Whats your opinion the actual contract may be like, and hence, exactly what the total outlay would be for 6 many years of Moncada?12:56Dave Cameron: Thats what my piece at JABO involved today, actually. Link rising on FG in ~4 minutes.12:57Comment From CatoblepasDo both baseball and low-income financial advice, by answer questions like this inside your chats. Whats the minimum add up to be clearing over monthly expenses where you should be investing, rather than just putting it into a checking account?12:58Dave Cameron: Depends entirely on your individual situation. If you have high-interest debt, making which go away is a priority. For those who have a matching-401k, you invest enough to a minimum of max out the match. Too many variables playing to state that everyone should be putting 10% of their income into a retirement plan.12:59Comment From GuestDave, can we take the time and recognize how Corey Washington Jersey awesome Kiley continues to be and is doing. I meana Yoan Moncada interview!?!12:59Dave Cameron: Yeah, Kileys killing it. A really great acce sory for the team.1:00Comment From CatoblepasThe concerns about data size seem a bit silly to me. Its nothing like we get complete PITCHf/x data its compre sed into what, six-ten points for every pitch? I have to imagine such like may happen for tracking data, instead of obtaining the position/velocity from the ball for every .1 seconds its in the air1:00Dave Cameron: The raw PITCHF/x data is much larger than what youre seeing on Gameday or on FG.1:01Dave Cameron: But, yes, the tracking data can get summarized for all of us, most likely. Now you ask , simply how much summarizing MLB promises to do.1:01Comment From DanielDave, try watching House of Cards1:01Dave Cameron: Got two episodes in and couldnt get it done anymore.1:02Comment From GuestIs there a minimum amount of money a golf club needs to spend like in the Nba where if the team doesnt players obtain the improvement in a yr end bonus?1:02Dave Cameron: Its not codified right into a single number, however the MLBPA can complain to the league if a team is not spending its revenue sharing distributions, and also the league can force these to spend more. This happened using the Marlins a few years back.1:02Comment From GuestThe living costs overall west coast is insane1:03Dave Cameron: The northeast isnt so cheap either.1:03Dave Cameron: People like water.1:03Comment From GuestCould baseball improve its popularity by starting an educational program teaching statistics/probability in schools using baseball? After i got into the numbers, I loved baseball more than ever before.1:04Dave Cameron: Not only stats. Coding too. Lots of useful skills could be taught through getting someone into baseball analysis.1:04Comment From i like baseballWhere can I create cool charts? like apart from excel?1:04Dave Cameron: Tableau1:04Comment From Matt DamonWhat does JABO stand for?1:05Dave Cameron: Just a Bit Outside.1:05Comment From mtswIf My home is New York now, San Diegos cost of living will in fact seem relatively sane though, right?1:05Dave Cameron: Just like individuals Antarctica think Siberia sounds lovely in the summer.1:06Dave Cameron: Okay, thats it for me personally today. Thanks for hanging out everyone. If youre likely to be at Sloan this weekend, please dont hesitate in the future say hello.